How many South Africans in the UK?
I’ve recently finished reading Freakonomics (see the blog here) and have been inspired by the authors’ commitment to smashing conventional wisdom by showing the real numbers. Conventional wisdom is rampant in discussions about South Africa, and I thought I’d share one of my own attempts to smash the conventional wisdom surrounding the number of South Africans in the UK.
The conventional wisdom states that there are 1 million South Africans in London. I’m sure most people have heard that one before. In fact, the Economist magazine ran an article in 2005 on the South African brain drain, which stated “some 1.4 million South Africans are thought to be living in Britain alone”. It’s when this sort of number gets into an international publication that conventional wisdom truly becomes accepted as gospel. But let’s look at some of the available data.
The last UK Census (2001), showed 140 236 South Africans living in the UK. One tenth of the Economist’s estimate. Either the ensuing 4 years saw a 1000% increase in the number of South African immigrants, or the census was woefully inaccurate, or the Economist’s journalist heard those numbers from a disenchanted South African in a pub somewhere.
StatsSA estmated in 2001 that there were 107 226 South Africans in the UK, although they admit that their own numbers are probably under-estimated by about 57%, which would mean that the number is closer to 168 000. Still a tad lower than the 1.4 million.
It is estimated that 8% of people living in the UK are foreign-born, which out of a population of 59.8 million means that there are about 4.8 million immigrants. 1.4 million South Africans would mean that almost 1 in 3 foreigners in the UK are South Africans. Unlikely!
Finally, greater London has a population of around 10 million people. If the conventional wisdom is correct and there are indeed 1 million South Africans in London, this would mean that every tenth person you meet in London is a South African. Although it may sometimes feel that way, this too is highly unlikely.
So there you go; some numbers that will hopefully help you to respond with “hogwash” next time someone tells you that there are a million South Africans in London or a respectable international magazine reports that there are 1.4 million in the UK.
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