Future Fit

International expansion and consolidation is the catch-phrase for any number of businesses, and it will continue to be so into the future.  Many are investing in emerging markets because of the higher returns that can be gained.  For example, even Warren Buffet made his first major investment outside the USA recently, paying $4bn for an Israeli company.

The same trend now applies to stock exchanges.  The New York Stock Exchange recently acquired 20% of the Indian National Stock Exchange, and it is acquiring Euronext, a pan-European operator of stock exchanges.  The Nasdaq has also just failed to buy the London Stock Exchange and may shift attention to emerging markets.

How long before one of these massive players makes a bid for part of South Africa’s JSE?  The JSE, which recently listed itself as a company, is apparently already the 15th largest exchange in the world, and it is the only target on the African continent worth considering.  The JSE Allshare Index has also experienced wild growth over the past few years.  South Africa is known internationally for solid corporate governance and for openness, certainly compared to markets like Thailand (which is trying to pass a law restricting foreign investment on their stock market).

It may be that a future international suitor for the JSE will come riding over the horizon sooner than anyone thinks.  Watch this space…

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The growing rage against crime by ordinary South Africans is quite understandable in light of the high profile murders that have taken place recently; most notable amongst them the cold-blooded killings of playwrite Taliep Petersen and historian David Ratray. 

One possible explanation as to why people are reacting as angrily as they are, despite an actual drop in crime statistics over the years (as the President and Chief of Police keep reminding us), is that when a high profile person is killed we take it very personally, as if we had actually known that person ourselves.  Just look at how the world reacted when Princess Diana died.

What is required in a situation like this is for the President and all The Powers That Be to recognise publicly that we have a serious crime problem, and to institute measures that at least make people feel like they care.  Whether that is getting the army involved, or having on-the-street blitzes and very public patrols and shows of force, I don’t know, but something has to change or our own people will shout and scream so much negativity that foreign visitors will be very hesitant to come here in 2010.  Telling them that statistics show a decrease and leaving it at that does not make people feel any better.

A further downside to an apparent lack of concern on the part of our leaders is that criminals think they can get away with crime even more easily than ever before.

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South Africa is sitting in a precarious position as far as the future of political freedom is concerned. 

Historically, countries that have experienced high levels of insecurity or political instability and ineffectiveness have become targets for extremists wanting to take control.  A good recent example is Thailand, which has suffered a military coup due to the leadership vacuum caused by Thaksin Shinawatra’s political demise.  Others include Pakistan, which is still under military rule after Pervez Musharraf seized power from a fantastically corrupt government, and Russia, which has seen a return to autocratic styles of leadership under Vladimir Putin.  The new Mexican president, Felipe Calderon, has started his term with a massive crackdown on organised crime, putting thousands of troops into action on the streets.

For the past twelve years, South Africa has not seen nearly enough of an improvement in levels of violent crime, and in particular the poorest of South Africans living in the country’s townships are exposed to crime on an ongoing basis.  Add to this no significant decrease (even a possible increase) in inequality between the richest and poorest in the country and social unrest stemming from lack of service delivery at a local level.  Finally there is the fight for leadership positions within the ruling ANC, which is increasingly damaging the party’s credibility amongst ordinary South Africans who would prefer their leaders to be looking out for them rather than their political futures.  It is no surprise that according to a recent Markinor poll, the “undecideds” now make up the largest percentage of the country’s potential voters after the ANC.

In such circumstances, the rationality of the people often goes out of the window and they hark back to the old days when jobs seemed plentiful and the youth “did what they were told”.  What we have is a situation that is ripe for an extremist to enter political stage left, with promises of nationalisation, curfews and allround order and prosperity, ala Adolf Hitler (who was actually voted into power by the people).  People would often prefer to lose their vote, which they only get to exercise once every five years anyway, and forego their freedom to have more order and security.

It all comes down to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs, the most basic of which is Physiological (food, clothing, shelter and health) and Safety & Security. Political freedom fits into needs much further up the hierarchy than what our people need most right now.  The challenge is to address those most basic needs before an extremist pops up and promises to address them for us.

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The vice-chancellor and the council chairman of KwaZulu-Natal University have both stepped aside from their positions pending a probe into claims of sexual harrassment and victimisation.  If these allegations are proven correct it will be a terrible blow to the cause of overcoming abuse of women in South Africa.  However, while both have denied the claims against them, they have both relinquished their positions because of the negative impact of the accusations.

Accountability seems to be very hard to come by in South Africa these days, so this sort of exemplary action is to be congratulated.  Jackie Selebi, Commissioner of Police, could take a leaf out of their book.  Guilty or not, his extremely important position in a country with a terrible image around crime has been severely compromised by his close friendship with Glen Agliotti, the man accused of being a mafia kingpin and the murderer of Brett Kebble.  The least he can do is step aside, at least temporarily, while investigations into the relationship are underway.

Just recently two Swedish cabinet ministers resigned from their positions in government - one because of irregularities around a nanny’s work permit and the other because of an unpaid TV licence.  Now that is true accountability, but for now I’ll settle for the kind of action taken at KZN University, because it’s a lot better than what we’ve seen so far.

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Welcome to blog.guylundy.com the new home of Guy Lundy’s Future Fit Blog.

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The MEC for community safety in Gauteng, South Africa, recently announced the launch of Operation Iron Fist, a plan to squash violent crime and secure a safer future for the province. It could be called Operation About Time, because it is time the South African Police Service took a harder line. For too long they have been worried about upsetting their “customers�, forgetting that a lot of those “customers� are very nasty people who respond best to a zero tolerance approach.I contrast this with a gendarme I saw recently in Paris, protecting the city from soccer hooligans upset at France’s loss in the World Cup final.  There was no paint left on his truncheon – it had clearly seen some action in its time. Similarly, one does not mess with the police in the USA or the UK. They are respected at the same time as being respectful (generally speaking). That is possibly one of the reasons why crime is lower there than it is in South Africa.

I trust that in the future the South African police will have grabbed back some of the fear and respect that they need to avoid crimes being committed, including by those who think it is their right to speed and to drink and drive.

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Those determined to bring down Jacob Zuma and destroy his future political career by pillorying him in the media should learn from the recent experience of Israel in Lebanon.  When Hezbollah first kidnapped Israeli soldiers, Israel actually had quite a number of sympathisers in Lebanon. But that country’s over-zealous response has turned them into enemies and ultimately supported the cause of Hezbollah.  This is similar to the experience of the Americans in Iraq.  There appears to be a point after which the public begins to feel sorry for the wrongdoer, which could well happen in future in the case of Jacob Zuma, as the press and those feeding it with stories relentlessly try to discredit him.

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The new advertisement being run on South African television by the Department of Home Affairs is hypocritical in the extreme.  The advertisement calls on South Africans to be more welcoming to refugees.  It hints at the similar hardships that struggle heroes who left South Africa went through.

In itself, the advertisement is commendable, but the reality is that when these people arrive in South Africa and apply for refugee status they are treated like liars, thieves and vagabonds by Home Affairs staff.

My wife is French, and we employ a French-speaking refugee from the Congo (who has been granted the legal right to work by Home Affairs) as a childminder.  I have accompanied her several times to the refugee processing centre in Cape Town to renew her status, and I’ve been disgusted at the treatment meted out to perfectly decent people.  The reason I accompany her, of course, is that being a self-confident, educated, English-speaking, white, South African male oils the wheels immeasurably (no matter what colour the Home Affairs official is).

Before the Department of Home Affairs tells us to treat immigrants better, they should role out a sensitivity programme amongst their own staff.

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Vuyo Mvoko’s article in Business Day, ‘Intolerance and slaughter: the dry white heart of SA�s suburbs’ (30 June), is an interesting insight into the challenge we face going into the future as new South Africans. To move forward positively as one nation, and to complete the as-yet-unfinished process of reconciliation, what we need more than anything else is tolerance and respect - from all cultures. Unfortunately, too often in South Africa these values are supplanted by egos; people determined to fight rather than to understand.We have so many talk shops in South Africa, especially in business, labour and government. But perhaps it is time for us ordinary South Africans to set up our own neighbourhood talk shops, with no explicit goal other than to learn more about each other. Rather than the predominantly white neighbourhood signing a petition and “taking the matter further”, and rather than the Magobiyanes simply angrily disregarding them “again, and again, and again”, they should all get together to share why they feel the way they do and how they can create mutual understanding and respect for their differences. It isn’t actually that hard to do if you put the egos on the shelf for a while. 

Apartheid was very effective at driving us apart. Now it’s up to us to come together and create a new South African identity, a true rainbow nation, by understanding more about each other. And that applies to all of us - black and white - because none of us know as much about each other as we pretend we do.

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